Thursday, June 12, 2008

November election: analysis

McCain is trailing Obama in opinion polls (see http://www.rasmussenreports.com/), but I think that this is the typical result of the enthusiasm for the nomination. However I don't know if Obama would be a successful candidate or not in November. In order to win he will need to hold all the States Mr. Kerry won in 2004 and actually win some more States. Take a look to my analysis.

The most swinging States that Obama could win are, in my opinion, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. I actually don't think that he can win Florida, Ohio and Colorado, all three States were McCain will be a strong canidate, and if he wins the three remaining States, McCain will win the general election with 269 e.v. over the 268 e.v. of Obama.

Moreover McCain could easily retain those three States mentioned and win a few more States Mr. Bush did not win in 2004 among Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. In these States Bush was close to victory and McCain will be a strong candidate. If he retains all the States Bush won in 2004 and wins some more States, he will win by a landslide.

It seems to me that Obama is the strongest Democratic candidate in Southern and Mountain states (states that McCain will definitely win, although with a smaller margin than Mr. Bush in 2004), while McCain is the strongest Republican candidate in the North-East, in industrial states (like New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan), in the Mid-West and in California.

It will be a close race, but it seems to me that Obama is actually gaining strenght where he doesn't need it, while being weaker in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and so on.
It is too early to make forecasts, but I definitely think that it will be a close race in much more states than in 2004 and that, in that kind of race, McCain is a strong candidate. Obama has much to loose if the red-blue scheme disappears in November. The 50-states strategy will help Mr. McCain, not Obama, who needs not to loose any of the states which Mr. Kerry won in 2004.

(Images: McCain: top, Obama: below)

13 comments:

RC-0722 said...

Don't be too sure about OH.

therequiembellishere said...

Yeah, I wouldn't count on FL, either. I meet a lot of Obama supporters but people who won't/can't vote plus most of the Clinton supporters I know (who can vote) are crossing over to McCain. I guess that all depends on how much they accept her campaign suspension, but a lot of them just don't like him.

As for the forgotten Midwest, I've met enough racists to say Obama has won more than I would have dreamed.

Diligent Terrier said...

Obama is also the weaker candidate for a state like Florida; Hillary Clinton would have probably done better.

therequiembellishere said...

Which she did.

Diligent Terrier said...

That's true, but Obama didn't campaign here.

therequiembellishere said...

I don't think that campaigning is as big as they're making it. Floridians aren't in the backwoods. We have Today, we have the internet. The people who usually attended campaign rallies are people already on that side. I think they already weighed the possibilities and decided on Clinton.

Anonymous said...

it would be scary if obama won the election!!!

Checco said...

I simply don't understand rc-0722's and therequiembellishere's remarks: in my post I said exactly what you said.

gtn said...

I think it's just common sense that places Americans on McCain's side. Even if you don't know much about either of them, you see a young, untried candidate with lots of ideas who might do anything and then you see the grisly old guy who looks like he'd beat the stuffin out of any country crossed us and protect our homes and families like a mad bulldog, I think in our current geopolitical climate the choice is obvious. Obama might win in another time when there wasn't so much turmoil and talk of war, an I mean new war, but today I just think America will stick to the usual and McCain will come out on top. Hillary would have definitely done better against him, but still would not have won.
By the way, I don't think racists are too big an issue. They are out there and they pretty flagrant, but there's just not enough to make a difference. Being as conservative as I am, I found myself hoping we were still just bigoted enough to keep a republican win, but I have seen no indications in the polls or the vast majority of news items to indicate this.

therequiembellishere said...

Checco, just reaffirming. And I wouldn't really enjoy the victory if it was because McCain took a KKK endorsement.

gtn said...

No, but at least I would have the satisfaction of not enjoying Obama's presidency. Like I said, I ALMOST found myself wishing... But I really would be dissapointed in our nation if that was the case.

pd_THOR said...

"lose"

gtn said...

"lose"?